The most popular octanol fell sharply, opening the

2022-07-26
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The sharp decline of octanol opened the prelude to the adjustment of the plasticizer industrial chain

. In the first half of the month, the market has a strong long intention. On the one hand, businesses are eager to rise after suffering from the long-term chicken ribs market. At the beginning of this month, Qilu octanol rose slightly, which brought some hope to the market since the development of metal materials for the determination of three variables in the city. The nearly crazy rise in the price of phthalic anhydride this month also put pressure on DOP. No, so what's the difference between the two experiments? The following is a brief introduction made by Shandong Star high tech. the market mentality is still a little cautious. Most middlemen still have risk awareness and operate with low positions. From the middle of the year, DOP barely rose to the high of 14000 yuan/ton, but the resistance of downstream buyers also reached a climax. Before the festival, due to the indifference of downstream goods preparation, the DOP factory sat uneasy, dropped steadily, and hurried to ship goods. At the end of the good days of the market, it began to turn downward. During the festival, factories such as Aijing Ningbo and Zhejiang Weibo stopped, and Qilu plasticizer also stopped for a short time. After the national day, Qilu octanol and other octanol were significantly reduced by 800 yuan/ton, which quickly led to a decline in the DOP market

this year, the DOP market has been living in the cracks between the upstream and downstream. In the past September, compared with the previous worst period, it has improved, mainly from three aspects: first, the seasonal warming of demand, second, the rise of raw material costs, and third, market speculation. Even so, under the background of global economic slowdown and domestic policy tension, the market downturn has not fundamentally changed

octanol is the main raw material of DOP. At present, for DOP, it can not push up, but be tired by it. Since more than 90% of octanol is used to produce DOP, the two are closely related. However, the comparison relationship has been changing slightly since the second half of 2010. In the past, octanol had a strong voice due to insufficient production capacity. With the rise of octanol plants in Shandong Jianlan, lihuayi and Tianjin Soda Plant, the asymmetric relationship between octanol production capacity and DOP was broken. The competitive situation in the octanol industry is heating up. The weak sales of DOP and the reduction of start-up continue to put pressure on octanol. During the festival, Aijing and Weibo devices are shut down, and Qilu plasticizer DOP is also shut down after the festival. The inventory of domestic octanol factories has increased. Due to the large profit margin of octanol, not many manufacturers process plastic bags from waste, which easily reduces the load, leading to an imminent price war. After the festival, Qilu, Lijin and other octanol dropped by 800 yuan/ton to compete for the downstream customers with about US $3.8 billion of China's export printing supplies. This caused the market to continue to be bearish on octanol, and the DOP market also encountered downstream exclusion and did not want to accept the offer

phthalic anhydride, as another raw material of DOP, is currently in a stalemate at a high level. Due to the continuous shortage of supply, the price of phthalic acid soared in January. Domestic phthalic acid climbed from 10800 yuan/ton at the beginning of September to 12600 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with an increase of more than 20%, which made the market marvel! At the end of the month, it was well deserved to be the champion of the chemical industry rise and fall list in September, and phthalic anhydride followed closely because of its passive rise and fall. Under the shadow of the overall chemical market downturn, the sharp rise of o-benzene and phthalic anhydride made the market unimaginable. Although the rising trend was curbed before the national day due to the gradual disconnection and conflict between sales, at present, Huizhou refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. and Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. are in the shutdown state, and the high price of external benzene discourages domestic businesses. The inventory of orthobenzene in East China is only less than 20000 tons. It can be inferred that the tight supply of orthobenzene is difficult to solve in the short term. The upside down situation of phthalic anhydride and o-benzene has been getting bigger and bigger. Some small and medium phthalic anhydrides have already stopped and exited the wait-and-see, and the space for phthalic anhydride to fall back in the later stage is narrow

it can be seen that at present, the products in the plasticizer industry chain are hot and cold, and the price linkage of the above four products has been disrupted. Phthalic anhydride and o-benzene have risen sharply against the market trend, while DOP and octanol have started a price war amid weak demand, while the uncertainty of the peripheral economy and the violent fluctuation of the crude oil market make the market more confusing. At present, manufacturers' sales are in trouble, downstream demand is weak, and market confidence is still declining. After going up against the market, there will be great resistance and downward pressure on the plasticizer industry chain as a whole in the future. However, due to different competitive forces, the downward adjustment pace is not consistent. In the DOP market, due to high cost pressure, manufacturers need to find a balance between load adjustment and price setting, and the market is expected to ease the decline. However, the raw octanol has a large market bearish space due to its high profit and enhanced competitiveness, and the strong price of phthalic anhydride indirectly increases the pressure reducing force of octanol

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